Expanding Compute: Musk’s Vision for a Terawatt Future

Only Elon Musk could challenge the limits of what is achievable. In his recent reflections, Musk envisions an incredible surge in computing power: bringing online a complete terawatt (TW) of computational capacity. This is roughly equal to 1.43 billion GPUs and would necessitate more than twice the United States’ average electrical output. The ambition is as extraordinary as it is challenging, and while it may not be achievable at present, it lays the groundwork for the future of artificial intelligence, energy infrastructure, and data centres on a planetary scale.

The Dimension of a Terawatt of Compute

To provide context, today’s global computing capacity is estimated to lie between 1 to 10 zettaFLOPS (10²¹ to 10²² FLOPS), predominantly sourced from data centres in the US, China, and Europe. A terawatt of compute would elevate this to 100 zettaFLOPS or even 1 yottaFLOPS (10²³ to 10²⁴ FLOPS)—a scale that is 10 to 1,000 times larger than current projections for 2025.

This escalation isn’t merely hypothetical. It would demand a consumption of 1 TW of power—approximately 2.1 times the average electricity output of the United States, and around 77% of its installed capacity. Almost 1% of the world’s electricity would be required solely for computing infrastructure.

Hardware Needs: 1.43 Billion GPUs

Assuming NVIDIA H100 GPUs or similar equipment drawing roughly 700 watts each, achieving 1 TW would necessitate over 1.43 billion GPUs. To provide context, even today’s largest corporate GPU purchases are in the range of hundreds of thousands. This signifies a 1,000-fold increase in hardware deployment and a logistical undertaking of unmatched proportions.

Financial Aspects of a Terawatt Compute Infrastructure

The financial consequences are equally monumental. Annual operating expenditures may fall between AU$11 trillion and AU$19.3 trillion (US$7.3 trillion to US$12.9 trillion), averaging around AU$15 trillion. This comprises:

• Electricity: AU$1.07 trillion/year (predicated on US$0.08/kWh and PUE 1.3).
• Capital expenditure: AU$13.8 trillion/year for hardware, data centres, and upkeep (assuming a 4-year life cycle).

This equates to around 10% of global GDP, or 25 to 30 times today’s international expenditure on data centres. It also reflects roughly 2 to 3 times the annual electricity usage of the entire U.S.

The Kardashev Scale: Imagining Beyond Earth

Musk links this idea to the Kardashev Scale—a framework for gauging a civilisation’s technological progress based on its energy consumption. Humanity is approaching Type I (planetary energy utilization). Musk envisions advancing towards Type II (stellar energy usage)—capturing solar energy through arrays both on Earth and in outer space.

He anticipates that energy captured could increase a billionfold with solar arrays in space, and potentially another billionfold if we achieve the Type III level, tapping into galactic energy resources. While these aspirations may seem distant, they could transform humanity’s position in the cosmic order.

Artificial Intelligence: The Engine Driving the Vision

What drives the pursuit of such vast computational capabilities? The primary catalyst is artificial intelligence. As AI models evolve in complexity, their necessity for computational resources escalates. Presently, AI performance continues to correlate with computational power, suggesting that superior AI is inherently linked to greater energy and investment.

To enable future breakthroughs in AI—such as artificial general intelligence (AGI), real-time autonomous robotics, or worldwide predictive analytics—extensive computational resources will be crucial. At this scale, infrastructure could support highly intelligent systems that revolutionize industries, science, and everyday life.

Renewables as a Crucial Component

Musk emphasizes that realizing this vision would demand significantly more solar energy. Future data centres could be established in regions abundant with renewable resources—Australia, with its vast solar energy potential, could prove to be an ideal location. Furthermore, advancements in space-based solar technology may be essential for powering next-generation computing facilities.

Conclusion

Elon Musk’s vision of a terawatt-scale computing infrastructure is audacious, teetering on the brink of science fiction. The initiative would necessitate over 1.43 billion GPUs, consume over twice the U.S.’s average electricity output, and incur costs reaching AU$19.3 trillion annually. Nevertheless, it frames a future rooted in AI, powered by solar and space-derived energy, and aligned with long-term planetary and cosmic ambitions. While it is currently unachievable, it offers a peek into a potential future where computing power underpins the progress of civilization.

Q&A: Essential Information

Q: What does terawatt of compute power mean?

A:

A terawatt (TW) of computing power signifies computing infrastructure that utilizes 1 trillion watts of energy. With contemporary GPUs capable of generating around 10¹¹ to 10¹² FLOPS per watt, a 1 TW system might achieve 10²³ to 10²⁴ FLOPS—equivalent to 100 zettaFLOPS up to 1 yottaFLOPS.

Q: How many GPUs are necessary to reach 1 TW of compute?

A:

If each GPU consumes 700 watts (like an NVIDIA H100), approximately 1.43 billion GPUs would be necessary for this level of computational throughput.

Q: Is building such a system feasible today?

A:

Not at this moment. The infrastructure, energy requirements, and costs vastly exceed what is economically or logistically practicable. It would demand extensive global collaboration, advancements in renewable energy, and breakthroughs in hardware efficiency.

Q: What drives Musk’s desire for such extensive computational resources?

A:

Mainly to back the next generation of artificial intelligence. AI capabilities continue to scale with increased compute, and achieving AGI or advanced robotics will likely necessitate infrastructure of this size.

Q: How does this correlate with the Kardashev Scale?

A:

Musk envisions society advancing along the Kardashev Scale—from consuming all planetary energy (Type I) to capturing solar power via space installations (Type II), ultimately reaching Type III, where we harvest energy from galactic sources. This vision is in line with a future where computing and energy necessities expand exponentially.

Q: Could Australia contribute to this vision?

A:

Absolutely. With immense solar resources and increasing investment in renewable energy, Australia could emerge as a center for green data centres and AI infrastructure, particularly as global projects seek low-carbon energy solutions.

Q: What would be the economic ramifications?

Leadership Changes: Key Figures in the Digital and Tech Sector

With Prime Minister Anthony Albanese unveiling a reorganized cabinet, Australia’s tech and communications sectors are poised for a transformative leadership era. The significant news is Anika Wells being named the new Minister for Communications, taking over from Michelle Rowland, who has been elevated to Attorney-General. Wells, a representative from Queensland, will maintain her responsibilities as Minister for Sport, a role she previously held alongside her duties in aged care.

Communications and Sports: A New Connection

Brisbane 2032 Olympics Inspires Portfolio Realignment

Albanese defended the unconventional merging of Communications and Sport under a single minister, citing the critical role of infrastructure as the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games approach. “The Commonwealth’s primary responsibility for sport essentially revolves around infrastructure,” he stated, clarifying that the sport portfolio has shifted from Health to Infrastructure, which also incorporates Communications. This adjustment is viewed as a strategic effort to synchronize policy and funding ahead of the major international sporting event.

Impact on Digital Infrastructure and Media

The timing of Wells’ appointment is crucial. As Australia continues its digital transformation, strong leadership will be essential for the country’s digital infrastructure, encompassing the National Broadband Network (NBN), regional connectivity, and national broadcasting services. The intersection of sport and communications could also significantly impact how major events like the Olympics are broadcasted and streamed, potentially influencing policy and funding for broadcasters like ABC and SBS.

Cyber Security: Tony Burke Maintains Leadership Role

Multi-Portfolio Management Denotes Strategic Focus

Tony Burke retains his role as Minister for Cyber Security, which he assumed in mid-2024. He also oversees Home Affairs, Immigration, and the Arts, demonstrating the government’s integrated strategy towards national security, identity management, and cultural policy. His ongoing leadership in cyber security highlights the increasing necessity for digital resilience amidst rising cyber threats to Australia’s infrastructure and services.

Focus on Cyber Security Strategy 2030

Burke is set to play a pivotal role in implementing the Cyber Security Strategy 2030, which seeks to establish Australia as the most cyber-secure nation by the decade’s end. This entails advancing legislative reforms, fostering public-private partnerships, and enhancing national incident response abilities.

Digital Economy and Innovation: Andrew Charlton Takes Charge

Fostering Science, Technology, and Digital Economy

Andrew Charlton has been appointed as Assistant Minister for Science, Technology, and the Digital Economy. A Rhodes Scholar and seasoned economic adviser, Charlton is anticipated to approach the position with a data-driven and innovation-centered perspective. His key areas will include advocating for Australia’s AI governance framework, supporting the tech startup ecosystem, and progressing the digitization of government services.

Advancing National Innovation and Emerging Technologies

Charlton’s appointment is perceived as a boon for Australia’s ambition to lead globally in emerging technologies such as quantum computing, fintech, and clean technology. His economic expertise and policy experience equip him to promote increased R&D investment and foster public-private collaborations in the science and technology sectors.

Conclusion

The restructured federal cabinet of Australia introduces a strategic blend of continuity and innovation within the tech, communications, and cyber security sectors. With Anika Wells overseeing the Communications ministry, Tony Burke continuing to lead cyber security, and Andrew Charlton stepping into a vital digital economy role, the Albanese government is demonstrating a robust commitment to digital transformation, infrastructure preparedness, and national cyber resilience. These appointments come at a crucial time for Australia’s competitiveness in the global tech arena and the imperative for digital safety.

Q: Who is Anika Wells and what are her new roles?

A:

Anika Wells serves as the Federal Member for Lilley, Queensland. In the updated cabinet, she has been designated as Minister for Communications while also maintaining her position as Minister for Sport. These combined roles align with the preparations for the Brisbane 2032 Olympics and ongoing enhancements to digital infrastructure.

Q: What prompted the relocation of the sports portfolio to Infrastructure and Communications?

A:

The sports portfolio was shifted to better align with Australia’s infrastructure strategies, particularly in the context of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games. This move aims to harmonize funding and development for sporting infrastructure with digital and communication needs.

Q: What does Tony Burke’s ongoing role in cyber security signify?

A:

Burke’s continued position points to stability and a heightened emphasis on national cyber resilience. He will oversee the execution of the Cyber Security Strategy 2030 and facilitate cross-portfolio efforts to mitigate cyber risks.

Q: What is Andrew Charlton expected to prioritize as Assistant Minister?

A:

Charlton is anticipated to promote innovation within the digital economy, support the scientific research landscape, and help shape technology policies surrounding AI, emerging technologies, and the delivery of digital services. His economic expertise positions him to strengthen Australia’s global technological edge.

Q: How might these appointments influence the NBN and regional internet accessibility?

A:

With Anika Wells in charge of Communications, there may be renewed emphasis on enhancing NBN effectiveness and closing the digital gap in regional and remote communities. This is especially pertinent in the run-up to the 2032 Olympics, necessitating dependable infrastructure nationwide.

Q: What are the government’s cyber security objectives by 2030?

A:

The government aims for Australia to emerge as the most cyber secure nation by 2030. Core initiatives encompass enhancing national incident response, fortifying protections for critical infrastructure, and building workforce capabilities in cyber defense.

Q: Will these appointments shift policy regarding digital inclusion?

A:

Absolutely. With an emphasis on digital equity, the fresh ministers are likely to pursue initiatives aimed at boosting digital literacy, affordability, and internet access for marginalized communities, particularly in regional and Indigenous regions.

Q: How is the tech community reacting to the recent appointments?

A:

Industry responses have been cautiously optimistic. Stakeholders express hope that the new ministers will engage proactively with the sector to tackle issues related to regulation, innovation funding, and the scarcity of digital skills.